But can summer 2009 stand up to the big money standards set by summer 2008? Looking more closely at which films open on which weekends, I noticed a pattern. Studios like opening certain types of films on particular weekends during the summer. There are good superhero movie weekends, good big budget sequel weekends, good family movie and cartoon weekends, and even a good weekend for Warner Brothers studios to unveil its biggest anticipated money-maker of the year. Let me show you the plan the studios have for audiences entertainment every summer, by comparing summer 2008 features to what’s coming in 2009.
Superhero weekend (1st weekend of May)
2008 “Iron Man” - box office: $318 million, critics: loved it, ReelGuy: 5/5
May 1, 2009 - “X-Men Origins: Wolverine”
Synopsis: Even though Wolverine’s been the primary focus of the X-Men franchise for the last ten years, Logan’s complete back story hasn’t been told . . . until now. The X-Man with the claws lived a long life before joining the mutant group, creating enemies and allies. This is indie film director Gavin Hood’s (“Tsotsi”) chance to prove himself on a big budget, special effects film. Hugh Jackman returns as the title character, promising us a meaner, less tame Wolverine. There’s been controversy during the making of the film, involving the influence of 20th century Fox executives on the final product and a leaked rough draft of the film on the internet.
Final comparison: Even if “Wolverine” is a success, it is unlikely to match the critical adoration and audience attendance that “Iron Man” achieved.
Rom-com counter programming (1st weekend of May)
2008 “Made of Honor” - box office: $46 million, critics: hated it, ReelGuy: 3/5
May 1, 2009 - “Ghosts of Girlfriends Past”
Synopsis: This fantasy romantic comedy stars Matthew McConaughey, Jennifer Garner, and Michael Douglas. McConaughey’s career choices have been particularly poor over the last five years. He can’t choose decent roles and appears to sleep walk through parts anyways (most of which involve him on a beach somewhere). But McConaughey has the capacity to put in a decent, romantic leading man performances (“How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days,” “The Wedding Planner”). The story takes a bachelor magically back through his past girlfriends, seeking to show him the error of his ways and change him into a better man.
Final comparison: Neither film showed too much promise. The idea of flashing back to past relationships is intriguing but McConaughey hasn’t proved himself capable of carrying a film in quite awhile. The box office numbers may be slightly more impressive than “Made of Honor” but the critics will equally malign this puff piece.
Retro science fiction weekend (2nd weekend of May)
2008 “Speed Racer” - box office: $44 million, critics: hated it, ReelGuy: 2/5
May 7, 2009 - “Star Trek”
Synopsis: After ten prior Star Trek films and multiple television series, Paramount is starting fresh with a movie prequel with the original Trek characters. Leonard Nimoy will perform voice-over duties as an elder Spock, talking about his days at Starfleet Academy before he became first officer of the Enterprise. Chris Pine (“Just My Luck”) plays the young Captain Kirk and Zachary Quinto (TV’s “Heroes”) performs the younger Spock. The original crew from the 1960s series have been recast by younger actors and a new director, J.J. Abrams, is giving the series an action-packed “Star Wars” like makeover. The buzz coming from this new version is unanimously positive.
Final comparison: Star Trek will easily destroy “Speed Racer’s” paltry box office numbers and will get a boost from positive reviews. While general audiences were tired of the “Star Trek” franchise long before the last movie, this re-imagining will likely recreate interest. Still this may be a hard sell on women, who may find the movie too geeky to give a chance.
Christianity-lite action-thriller weekend (3rd weekend of May)
2008 “Chron. of Narnia: Prince Caspian” - b.o.: $142 million, critics: mixed, RG: 4/5
May 15, 2009 - “Angels and Demons”
Synopsis: “Angels and Demons” is based on the first Dan Brown book with Robert Langdon, which was written before the runaway success of “The Da Vinci Code.” Coming off his best picture Oscar nomination, Ron Howard returns to directing blockbusters with this prequel. Re-teaming with Tom Hanks, who played Langdon before, I would expect a similar visual style and performances to the original film. In this story, Langdon is brought into the Vatican to investigate a murder and stop a terrorist threat posed by an ancient order of revolutionaries called the Illuminati.
Final comparison: Even though “Prince Caspian” grossed over $100 million in theatres, it was viewed as a slight failure by Disney, who dropped the third film from its roster. “The Da Vinci Code” had some problems with pacing the action but audiences still came out in droves to see the movie. I expect “Angels and Demons” to be both a financial and critical success, with Howard improving on his formula from the prior film.
Big budget action sequel weekend (4th weekend of May)
2008 “Indiana Jones 4 (Crystal Skull)” - b.o.: $317 million, critics: liked it, RG: 4/5
May 15, 2009 - “Terminator Salvation” and
“Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian”
Synopsis: The fourth film in the “Terminator” franchise occurs after the nuclear bombs are dropped by the super computer Skynet, practically wiping out humanity. Christian Bale stars as John Connor, future leader of the resistance to fight the machines. McG, a big budget action director, made fans initially skeptical of this new film but the impressive scenes shown in the movie trailers put some of this concern to rest.
“Night at the Museum 2” takes place after the original movie, following Ben Stiller’s security guard Larry to the Smithsonian. The models and exhibits come alive at night in museums but only a rare few people know about it. The historical figures and creatures can get in trouble left to their own devices. That’s why night security guards are needed, to keep things from getting out of the museum, not vice versa. Many of the familiar faces from the original movie return to cause more fantastical, family friendly mayhem, including Robin Williams and Owen Wilson.
Final Comparison: It will be tough for either movie to top the box office made by “Indiana Jones 4,” though they may be overall better films. I think film critics, including myself, gave Spielberg a pass with his last Indy film, despite the numerous plausibility problems with it. The original “Museum” brought in big money a few years back and its kid friendly. This movie has the best chance at topping Indiana Jones numbers. I do expect “Terminator 4” to be financially and critically successful, enough to justify more movies.
Low budget horror weekend (5th weekend of May)
2008 “The Strangers” - box office: $52.5 million, critics: disliked it, ReelGuy: 5/5
May 29, 2009 - “Drag Me to Hell”
Synopsis: A woman banker is cursed by an old lady for turning down her pleas for an extension on her mortgage payments. The curse sends a demon after the woman, which will torment her until it finally takes her back to hell. Alison Lohman and Justin Long star with “Spiderman” director Sam Raimi directing a script written by him and his brother. Raimi is returning to his horror “Evil Dead” trilogy roots and the first trailer looks authentically scary.
Final Comparison: Horror movies don’t do traditionally well over the summer but “The Strangers” was a modest success. Critics overlooked and underappreciated this film, but horror author Stephen King apparently quite liked the film (as did the ReelGuy). The return of Raimi to horror and his success with the “Spiderman” films may draw a bigger crowd than “The Strangers.” I believe Raimi is a wonderfully capable director and will create another quality production, on par with Mr. King and I thought of “The Strangers.”
The misplaced movies (5th weekend of May)
2008 “Sex & the City: The Movie” - box office: $153 million, critics: mixed, RG: n/a
May 29, 2009 - “Pixar’s Up”
Synopsis: Pixar makes financially successful movies that families want to see and critics adore. It barely matters what the plot is since Pixar equals quality animation. Carl, an elderly gentleman, turns his house into a flying machine to go see the world. He doesn’t expect that a young adventure scout named Russell has inadvertently taken the trip with him.
Final comparison: These movies don’t really compare. Last year, Pixar released “Wall E” on the last weekend of June but “Ice Age 3D” is coming out the first weekend of July, which would have created unwanted competition amongst the two 3D animated films. While “Up” will likely be a critical darling and make money, how can it possibly surpass the brilliance of last year’s best film (in my opinion) “Wall E?”